2022: Correlation between aging and increasing government transfer dependency in San Juan County?

2022: Correlation between aging and increasing government transfer dependency in San Juan County?
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group — Official Website
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In 2022, San Juan County received $1.6 billion in government transfer payments, equivalent to $13,384 per capita.

These payments—which include Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and income maintenance—accounted for 30.8% of all personal income in the county, according to information from the Economic Innovation Group.

This marks a significant increase in the county’s reliance on government transfers compared to 2012, when such payments made up 19.5% of total income. Since then, the share has risen by 11.3%.

Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).

In 2022, government transfers in San Juan County primarily focused on older adults—such as Social Security transfers, which totaled $433.4 million (26.9% of all transfer income), and Medicare, which accounted for $326.9 million (20.3%)—played a significant role in the county’s overall income.

On a per capita basis, Social Security payments rose from $2,381 in 2012 and $533 in 1970 to $3,599 in 2022, reflecting a 51.2% increase over the past decade and a 575.2% shift since 1970.

Similarly, Medicare transfers climbed from $1,601 in 2012 and $54 in 1970 to $2,715, marking 69.6% and 4,927.8% increases, respectively.

These increases in per capita payments align with shifts in the county’s age distribution. In 2022, residents aged 65 and older made up 16.9% of the total population, compared to 11.6% in 2012 and 4.9% in 1970. While the senior share of the population has increased, the rise in per capita Social Security and Medicare transfers suggests that these assistance programs for older adults now require a larger share of government funding—either due to growing needs, expanded eligibility, higher benefit levels, or increased enrollment.

According to the Economic Innovation Group, total income in San Juan County excluding public assistance amounted to $30,105 per capita in 2022, compared to $43,489 when government transfers were included.

Breaking down the other contributions in the county, Medicaid transfers made up $466.2 million, a 28.9% share of total income, while income maintenance programs, including assistance such as SNAP or TANF, added another $240.8 million, or 14.9% of the total.

Compared to the previous year, San Juan County’s reliance on government transfers decreased by 3.4%.

Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans’ income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,016 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,529 per capita) in 2022 nationwide.

According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.

Breakdown of Government Transfers by Program in San Juan County, 2022
2022 New Mexico County Rankings by Per Capita Government Transfers
County State Rank (Per Capita Transfers) Dependency on Transfers (%) % Population 65+ Social Security Transfers (%) Medicare Transfers (%) Medicaid Transfers (%) Income Maintenance Transfers (%) Per Capita Transfers ($)
Sierra County 1 50.96% 38.13% 27.3% 21.2% 31.3% 11.9% $24,783
Mora County 2 45.23% 32% 25.7% 15.1% 39.5% 11.7% $23,421
San Miguel County 3 48% 25.3% 19.7% 12.9% 45.8% 14.6% $21,815
Quay County 4 44.37% 27.21% 23.5% 19.9% 34.4% 14% $20,947
De Baca County 5 37.3% 29% 24.3% 16.1% 38.4% 12.5% $20,909
Grant County 6 39.83% 30.41% 28.5% 18.1% 33.3% 11.6% $20,676
Hidalgo County 7 37% 23% 23.4% 15.8% 40.5% 14.9% $19,660
Guadalupe County 8 45.65% 21.13% 19.3% 14.3% 46.1% 13.6% $19,519
Colfax County 9 37.53% 28.81% 29.1% 22.9% 28.3% 11.4% $18,870
Socorro County 10 41.12% 21% 21.6% 16.8% 36% 18.3% $17,781
Rio Arriba County 11 40.23% 21.99% 23.9% 15.1% 39.2% 15.8% $17,460
Lincoln County 12 34.47% 31.83% 33.8% 22.8% 23.7% 11.8% $17,322
Torrance County 13 39% 23% 24.7% 14.8% 34.7% 17.8% $16,854
Taos County 14 35.43% 30.51% 30.4% 18.8% 30.4% 12.7% $16,575
Luna County 15 43.72% 20.54% 24.6% 19.2% 29% 19.9% $16,356
Catron County 16 41.31% 42.82% 42.2% 23.9% 12% 10.3% $16,302
Union County 17 36.21% 23.46% 25.7% 25.5% 29.8% 11.3% $15,669
Chaves County 18 31.91% 16.53% 21.6% 16.7% 38.8% 16.8% $15,250
McKinley County 19 43.47% 13.73% 15.8% 14.7% 40.2% 19.6% $15,175
Cibola County 20 43.85% 17.86% 21.7% 18.2% 35.1% 16.7% $14,991
Harding County 21 32.2% 41.22% 36.7% 23.5% 18.3% 10.4% $14,871
Valencia County 22 33.17% 18.71% 25.5% 15.1% 32.3% 16.9% $14,588
Curry County 23 26.88% 13.45% 18.2% 15.7% 35.4% 17.2% $14,428
Roosevelt County 24 29% 15.16% 18.7% 16.3% 38.6% 15.9% $14,398
Dona Ana County 25 31.15% 16.99% 23.6% 18.2% 28.9% 18.6% $14,130
Santa Fe County 26 18% 28% 40.3% 21.8% 18.3% 11.9% $13,479
San Juan County 27 30.77% 16.9% 26.9% 20.3% 28.9% 14.9% $13,384
Bernalillo County 28 22.96% 18.28% 29.6% 17.7% 26.5% 16% $12,755
Otero County 29 30.25% 17.53% 26.9% 20.6% 22.5% 15.3% $12,660
Eddy County 30 18.76% 14.92% 25% 18.3% 35% 15.8% $12,657
Sandoval County 31 21.87% 19.99% 36.6% 20.6% 16.9% 13.1% $11,622
Lea County 32 21.62% 11.67% 21.4% 16.4% 38.5% 17.7% $11,423
Los Alamos County 33 8.87% 18.62% 49.6% 23% 9.7% 8.8% $7,677


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